Snowfall for the Colorado High Country started out strong this season with many ski resorts opening early for the first time in a decade. Unfortunately as we’ve moved into 2019 the snow has been both, less frequent and very few days with high accumulations. This has lead to snow pack totals to creep closer to 100% in the northwest, with a statewide total of only 95% as seen below:
Currently a storm is headed towards Colorado from the Pacific which will bring some beneficial snowfall to the High Country. This snow should start impacting the region Thursday afternoon and could last into early Saturday morning before pushing eastward and out of Colorado. Best chances for snow with this storm will be in the central Rockies along the Continental Divide which is generally the case with west to east storms. Here are the percent probabilities provided by NWS for an inch or above snowfall over the next two days:
It appears there will a good chance for the entire state to see at least some snowfall, but as the accumulations go up, the probabilities drop significantly as seen below on areas expecting more than 4″:
This indicates that there will be a good chance to see snow over the next couple of days, although amounts will most likely be minimal. At this time there is a lot of model uncertainty as is usually the case with west/northwest to east/southeast storms. Considering the pattern we have been in, the snowfall amounts indicated below seem more likely:
Although I would expect totals in the southern, central Rockies and along the Continental Divide, especially western facing slopes receiving amounts closer to these:
The NWS only has a 10% chance for amounts in the 6-12″ range for the Colorado High Country, but I would certainly give a 50% chance to at least see half of those amounts across portions of the Continental Divide, the San Juans and Sangre de Christo ranges!