A powerful trough of low pressure will move across Texas late tonight, triggering 1-2 rounds of overnight thunderstorms across the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area. Warm, moist air will be in place today ahead of the system, but cloud cover should largely limit thunderstorm development. However, strong upper level support from the approaching system tonight will allow for thunderstorms to develop across North Texas (image source: pivotalweather.com).
The prime time for thunderstorms will be while most people are sleeping, between about midnight and 7am Saturday. Strong upper level dynamics along with an unstable atmosphere will also result in a severe weather threat overnight, with large hail being the primary threat. Although the tornado threat will be low, it can’t entirely be ruled out so it would be wise to keep a weather alarm handy overnight.
The next image below shows the projected radar reflectivity from HRRR-model at 1am Saturday, when it projects the first round of storms to be moving across the Dallas-Ft. Worth area (image source: weathermodels.com).
A second round of thunderstorms is also likely to arrive closer to daybreak Saturday as a cold front arrives, with the threat of severe weather existing with this second round as well. After about 7am we should see the threat of storms quickly come to an end with dry and breezy conditions developing during the day.
Cool and showery conditions are expected across the Dallas area on Sunday and Monday, but the thunderstorm threat looks low to none both days.
Attention then turns to a powerful low pressure system approaching by the middle of next week, which will bring a risk for both severe weather and flooding on Tuesday and/or Wednesday across the Dallas-Ft. Worth region.