The Weather Wire
June 2005 Volume 13 Number 06
Avg High 71.6
Avg Low 42.4
Snow - 1.4"
Season Snow - 39.3"
Precipitation - 0.71"
Avg High 82.1
Avg Low 53.0
Avg Snow - TR
Avg Precip - 1.56"
June officially kicks off the new hurricane season for the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The season runs from June through October with the heaviest activity concentrated during the months of August and September. And while Colorado sits in the center of a continental land mass and doesn’t have to worry about hurricanes many parts of the country can be affected.
The outlook for the 2005 season calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. This number of hurricanes is again above normal and continues the above normal tend for hurricanes that began in 1995. Historically, similar seasons have averaged 2-3 land falling hurricanes in the continental Untied States and 1-2 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. Beginning with 1995 all of the Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal with the exception of the two El Nino years (1997 and 2002). This contrasts sharply with the generally below normal activity observed during the previous 25-year period 1970-1994. During this period hurricane seasons averaged 9 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 1.5 major hurricanes. Conditions were also very conducive to above normal hurricane seasons during the 1950s and 1960s.
A couple of the factors that are fueling this active period are warmer than normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures and lighter than normal winds over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Warm surface temperatures are the heat that hurricanes feed and grow from. Generally once sea surface temperatures reach 81-82 they are conducive to hurricane formation. Sea surface temperatures by August and September are expected to be a few degrees warmer than that. Lighter winds both at the surface (easterly Trade winds) and the upper levels winds traveling west to east means less shear. Having less shear means the hurricanes have a better chance of growing and becoming stronger without being torn apart by shearing winds.
Although an above normal season is expected that does not necessarily mean that the U.S. coast will be pounded like it was in 2004. The fact that Florida was hit by 4 different storms was just bad luck. We have seen above normal hurricane seasons where most of the storms stayed out to sea. On the other hand even during below normal seasons the hurricanes that form hit land.
So as we head into the hurricane season the early indications are that it will be a busy one. Oh, and before someone starts to jump on the global warming bandwagon to explain the increase in Atlantic hurricanes, there is no data to correlate any increase in the global temperature to an increase in hurricane activity! They seem to have a cycle of their own.
Online Forecasts Available Again
Skyview Weather is happy to announce that online forecasts and snow reports are again available on our sister www.anythingweather.com website. Forecasts and snow reports are password protected, but an email to Tim@Skyview-WX.com requesting your forecast and/or snow reports be available online will result in an account being setup for you. As always, forecasts and snow reports are for client use only, but with the online access, forecasts and snow reports are just a click away from any computer with an internet connection!
Little change in drought conditions across most of Colorado, with few areas of drought remaining..
The map below shows forecasted temperature deviances for the June2005 time period. As can be seen, normal temperatures are expected for much of Eastern Colorado for June 2005, while Western Colorado is forecast to have below normal temperatures..
The map below shows forecasted precipitation deviances for June 2005. Normal or near normal precipitation is expected for much of Colorado for June 2005.
As can be seen in the below map, most of the state has come out of the widespread drought conditions of a year ago, improvement will continue in Northwest and Northwest Colorado through August 2005.
May 2005 finished with a total of 0.71 inch of moisture which was 1.61 inches below the normal of 2.32 inches. There were 6 days with measurable rainfall and 4 days with rainfall of 0.10 inch or greater. The maximum 24 hour rainfall occurred between May 29th and May 30th with 0.22 inch. May 30th recorded the most rainfall in a 24 hour period with 0.30 inch. So far for the year we have recorded 4.14 inches, which is 2.39 inches below the norm, but again we remind you that quite a bit of the Front Range has near normal to above normal rainfall for the year so far. We did see 1.3 inches of snow for the month of May which is only a tenth above the normal for the month of 1.3 inches.
The month finished with an average temperature of 57.0 degrees which is only 0.2 degrees below normal. Temperatures during the month ranged from a record tying 91 degrees on the 20th down to a low of 27 degrees on the 12th. Another temperature record was tied during the month, 87 degrees on the 24th which was last set in 1984. The 91 degree record was the first 90 degree reading of the year. The last date that Denver recorded a 90 degree temperature was September 18th 2004.
June is severe weather month for Denver. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are notorious in Denver and across eastern Colorado during June. Over 40 percent of the tornadoes that occur in Colorado are observed during June. June tornadoes and severe thunderstorms have caused extensive property damage in and near the Denver metro area in years past.
Some of the more notable tornadoes occurred in: Thornton on June 3, 1981, southeast Denver and Aurora on June 8, 1986 and east Denver on June 13, 1984. In addition, on June 13, 1984 powerful thunderstorms dumped large hail, making it one of the worst and costliest hail storms in Denver history. During June 2001, a major hail storm moved across Denver International Airport on the 20th, dropping hailstones as big as two inches in diameter.
Even though there are frequent tornado occurrences in eastern Colorado during June, there has not been a tornado related death since 1960. However, there have been several deaths attributed to lightning during June.
Cool weather can still occur in early June. The latest freeze on record in Denver occurred on June 2, 1951 when the mercury dropped to 30 degrees. This is also the record low temperature for June. Snow has been reported in the city as late as June 11th when in 1947 a trace of snow was reported. The wettest June was in 1882 when 4.96 inches of rain fell and the driest June was 1890 with only a trace of precipitation recorded. The maximum 24 hour precipitation was 3.16 inches on June 11, 1970.
By the end of June, the mercury has been known to climb to 100 degrees or higher. The record high temperature for June is 104 degrees set on June 26th 1994. Other high temperature records reaching 100 degrees or higher are: 102 set June 23rd 1954, 102 set June 27th 1990, June 29th 1990 and June 30th 1990, 100 degrees set June 25th 1991. The warmest June occurred in 1994 with an average temperature of 73.5 degrees. The coldest June was 60.6 degrees in 1967.
Sunrise/Sunset (Denver area)