The Weather Wire

 

October 2008                                                                                                            Volume 16 Number 10

 

Contents

 

 

 
·   Winter Preview
 

·   Drought Monitor

 

·   September

    Summary

 

·   September Stats

 

·   October Preview

 

·   Sunrise/Sunset

 

·   Rainfall Totals

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September 

Avg High - 76.0

Avg Low - 47.5

Snow - 0.0"

Season Snow - 0.0"

Precipitation - 1.04"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October

Avg High - 66.0

Avg Low - 35.9

Avg Snow -  4.1"

Avg Precip - 0.99"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Skyview Weather 

2350 N Rocky View Rd

Castle Rock, CO 80108

 

Phone: (303) 688-9175

Fax: (303) 380-3338

 

E-mail:    

tim@skyview-wx.com

 

We’re on the Web!

http://www.skyview-wx.com/

 

Copyright 2008

Skyview Weather

Winter Preview

What does this winter have in store for the Front Range of Colorado?  Well, as you all know snowfall can be highly variable from year to year and location to location, but Skyview Weather believes that a persistence forecast in tandem with Colorado’s “normal” climatology in mind can give a reasonably accurate forecast for this winter season. 

As of the 1st of October the early fall season has been very mild without a frost or freeze along the I-25 corridor.  The longer range models are currently hinting at a more active weather pattern beginning this weekend which will put an end to the string of above normal temperatures we have seen recently.  Speaking of temperature, the mean temperature which takes into account the high and low has been at or below normal for every month except one all the way back to October 2007.  This trend of near normal to below normal temperature will likely continue into the winter season.  What does that mean?  Well the snow that falls will last longer, especially on north facing slopes with areas of ice due to the freeze thaw that occurs between day and night.

Precipitation has been lacking so far this year as we are more than 4.0” below normal to date.  There are not any signs that this pattern will change significantly in the near future.  As a result this winter will likely feature near normal to slightly below normal snowfall for many areas along the Front Range.  Some specific locations that will likely receive more snow than last year are Colorado Springs and northeastern areas of Denver.  Both locations will likely receive more snow, plainly due to the fact that snow totals were well below normal in these areas last year, especially in and around Colorado Springs.

As many of you remember there was a relatively high frequency of snow producing weather systems ranging from trace amounts up to the big snows in December.  With the northern branch of the jet stream being the dominant feature again this year there will likely be a high frequency of storms ranging from weak disturbances to stronger, 24-48 hour storm systems.  Highest snowfall months will likely fall in line with climatology: November, December, February, March and April.  Last year January was above normal in snowfall and will likely be near normal this year.  As always, there will be a chance for a “big” snow with the best chances in the late winter/early spring on normal years.  Last year the largest snowfall came in December and with a slow start we have witnessed so far this year it would not be surprising to see some significant snow again in December this year.  If this December does produce above normal snowfall it will likely remain on the ground for quite some time (like last year) due to the suns angle being at its lowest point in the sky.

To sum it all up, Skyview Weather believes that the winter of 2008-2009 will be at or below normal in temperature, near normal to slightly below normal in snowfall with an active weather pattern producing a higher than normal frequency of snow events ranging from numerous small storms of TR-3”, 3-5 storms of 4-8” and 1-2 storms of 12” or more.  As always there will be locations that buck the trend and end up significantly higher or lower than surrounding areas due to the highly variable terrain and the effects of rain/snow shadowing from the Palmer Divide, Continental Divide and the Cheyenne Ridge.

 

Drought Update

Areas of drought are spreading across much of eastern Colorado as a result of our precipitation deficit year to date.

The map below shows forecasted temperature deviances for October 2008. As can be seen, it is expected that virtually all of Colorado to have normal temperatures for the month of October 2008.  The exceptions being the extreme southern portions of Colorado where slightly warmer temperatures than average are anticipated.

The map below shows forecasted precipitation deviances for October 2008.  Normal precipitation is anticipated for all of Colorado.

Drought conditions are expected to improve across southeastern Colorado over the next 3 months, with no change expected other area of the state.

September Summary

September of 2008 was a near normal month in both precipitation and temperature.  The end of the 90 degree weather came to an end with the warmest day of the month posting a temperature of 87 degrees.  There was not a freeze or frost this month with the lowest temperature being only 40 degrees, which is rather warm.  The mean temperature for the month was 61.8 degrees which is about a half of a degree below normal.  Nearly all of the precipitation during the month of September came in the first two weeks with 1.04" total for the month.  This was below normal by only 0.10", but the deficit for the year now stands at -4.19".  September lived up to its reputation as being one of the sunniest months in Colorado with 67% possible sunshine.

September Stats

TEMPERATURE (IN DEGREES F)

 

 

 

 

 

 

AVERAGE MAX

76.0

NORMAL

77.4

DEPARTURE

-1.4

AVERAGE MIN

47.5

NORMAL

47.3

DEPARTURE

0.2

MONTHLY MEAN

61.8

NORMAL

62.4

DEPARTURE

-0.6

HIGHEST

87 on the 22nd and 26th

LOWEST

40 on the 9th

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS WITH MAX 90 OR ABOVE

0

NORMAL

2.2

DAYS WITH MAX 32 OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0.2

DAYS WITH MIN 32 OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0.8

DAYS WITH MIN ZERO OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

TEMPERATURE RECORDS

 

No records tied or broken.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HEATING DEGREE DAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

116

NORMAL

136

DEPARTURE

-20

SEASONAL TOTAL

144

NORMAL

146

DEPARTURE

-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

COOLING DEGREE DAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

26

NORMAL

57

DEPARTURE

-31

YEARLY TOTAL

825

NORMAL

696

DEPARTURE

129

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRECIPITATION (IN INCHES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

1.04

NORMAL

1.14

DEPARTURE

-0.10

YEARLY TOTAL

8.35

NORMAL

12.54

DEPARTURE

-4.19

GREATEST IN 24 HOURS

0.79" from 9/11 to 9/12

DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

5

 

 

 

 

 

SNOWFALL (IN INCHES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

0.0

NORMAL

2.1

DEPARTURE

-2.1

SEASONAL TOTAL

0.0

NORMAL

61.7

DEPARTURE

0.0

GREATEST IN 24 HOURS

N/A

GREATEST DEPTH

N/A

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIND (IN MILES PER HOUR)

 

 

 

 

 

 

AVERAGE SPEED 8.8mph

PEAK WIND GUST

44mph from the north

 

 

 

 

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS WEATHER

 

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS

3

NORMAL

4

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HEAVY FOG

0

NORMAL

1

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HAIL

0

 

 

PERCENT OF SUNSHINE

67%

NORMAL

74%

 

 

 

October Preview

October has a reputation for beginning warm and pleasant at the beginning of the month and cool, wet or snowy towards the end of the month.  Believe it or not October is usually the second sunniest month in Colorado just after September.  As far as temperatures for the month there can be a wide range from 90 degree weather to single digits and teens.  I am sure many of you remember some epic October snow storms such as the 1997 blizzard that dumped 21.9" of snow at the Stapleton site.  Snow from that storm remained on the ground through March in many foothill and Palmer Divide locations.  It is unlikely that a storm like that will be experienced this year, but winter usually makes a visit during the month with 4.1" of snow on average.  Thunderstorms become very rare with only one storm reported on average.           

DENVER'S NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL

(NORMAL PERIOD 1971-2000)

 

 

TEMPERATURE

 

 

 

AVERAGE HIGH

66.0

AVERAGE LOW

35.9

MONTHLY MEAN

51.0

DAYS WITH HIGH 90 OR ABOVE

0

DAYS WITH HIGH 32 OR BELOW

Less than 1

DAYS WITH LOW 32 OR BELOW

9

DAYS WITH LOWS ZERO OR BELOW

0

 

 

PRECIPITATION

 

 

 

MONTHLY MEAN

0.99"

DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

5

AVERAGE SNOWFALL IN INCHES

4.1

DAYS WITH 1.0 INCH OF SNOW OR MORE

1

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS AVERAGES

 

 

 

HEATING DEGREE DAYS

436

COOLING DEGREE DAYS

0

WIND SPEED (MPH)

7.8mph

WIND DIRECTION

South

DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS

1

DAYS WITH DENSE FOG

1

PERCENT OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE

72%

 

 

EXTREMES

 

 

 

RECORD HIGH

90 on 10/1/1892

RECORD LOW

-2 on 10/29/1917

WARMEST

59.9 degrees in 1950

COLDEST

39.0 degrees in 1969

WETTEST

4.17" in 1969

DRIEST

Trace in 1934

SNOWIEST

31.2" in 1969

LEAST SNOWIEST

0.0" in 2003 and 13 other years
 

Sunrise/Sunset (Jul - December Denver area)

             JUL                 AUG            SEP               OCT              NOV               DEC
______________________________________________________________________________
            sr - ss           sr - ss           sr - ss            sr - ss            sr - ss           sr - ss
 01  0536-0831 | 0559-0813 | 0628-0731 | 0656-0643 | 0729-0557 | 0702-0436  01
 02  0536-0831 | 0600-0812 | 0629-0730 | 0657-0641 | 0630-0456 | 0703-0435  02
 03  0537-0831 | 0601-0811 | 0630-0728 | 0658-0639 | 0631-0455 | 0704-0435  03
 04  0537-0831 | 0602-0810 | 0631-0727 | 0659-0638 | 0632-0454 | 0705-0435  04

 05  0538-0831 | 0603-0809 | 0632-0725 | 0700-0636 | 0633-0453 | 0706-0435  05
 06  0538-0830 | 0604-0807 | 0633-0723 | 0701-0635 | 0634-0452 | 0707-0435  06
 07  0539-0830 | 0604-0806 | 0634-0722 | 0702-0633 | 0636-0451 | 0708-0435  07
 08  0540-0830 | 0605-0805 | 0634-0720 | 0703-0632 | 0637-0450 | 0708-0435  08

 09  0540-0829 | 0606-0804 | 0635-0719 | 0704-0630 | 0638-0449 | 0709-0435  09
 10  0541-0829 | 0607-0803 | 0636-0717 | 0705-0628 | 0639-0448 | 0710-0435  10
 11  0542-0829 | 0608-0801 | 0637-0715 | 0706-0627 | 0640-0447 | 0711-0435  11
 12  0542-0828 | 0609-0800 | 0638-0714 | 0707-0625 | 0641-0446 | 0712-0435  12

 13  0543-0828 | 0610-0759 | 0639-0712 | 0708-0624 | 0642-0445 | 0712-0436  13
 14  0544-0827 | 0611-0758 | 0640-0710 | 0709-0622 | 0644-0444 | 0713-0436  14
 15  0544-0827 | 0612-0756 | 0641-0709 | 0710-0621 | 0645-0443 | 0714-0436  15
 16  0545-0826 | 0613-0755 | 0642-0707 | 0711-0619 | 0646-0443 | 0714-0437  16

 17  0546-0826 | 0614-0753 | 0643-0706 | 0712-0618 | 0647-0442 | 0715-0437  17
 18  0547-0825 | 0615-0752 | 0644-0704 | 0713-0617 | 0648-0441 | 0716-0437  18
 19  0548-0824 | 0616-0751 | 0645-0702 | 0715-0615 | 0649-0441 | 0716-0438  19
 20  0548-0824 | 0617-0749 | 0646-0701 | 0716-0614 | 0650-0440 | 0717-0438  20

 21  0549-0823 | 0618-0748 | 0647-0659 | 0717-0612 | 0651-0439 | 0717-0439  21
 22  0550-0822 | 0619-0746 | 0648-0657 | 0718-0611 | 0653-0439 | 0718-0439  22
 23  0551-0821 | 0619-0745 | 0648-0656 | 0719-0610 | 0654-0438 | 0718-0440  23
 24  0552-0820 | 0620-0744 | 0649-0654 | 0720-0608 | 0655-0438 | 0719-0440  24

 25  0553-0820 | 0621-0742 | 0650-0652 | 0721-0607 | 0656-0437 | 0719-0441  25
 26  0554-0819 | 0622-0741 | 0651-0651 | 0722-0606 | 0657-0437 | 0719-0442  26
 27  0554-0818 | 0623-0739 | 0652-0649 | 0723-0604 | 0658-0437 | 0720-0442  27
 28  0555-0817 | 0624-0738 | 0653-0648 | 0724-0603 | 0659-0436 | 0720-0443  28

 29  0556-0816 | 0625-0736 | 0654-0646 | 0725-0602 | 0700-0436 | 0720-0444  29
 30  0557-0815 | 0626-0734 | 0655-0644 | 0727-0559 | 0701-0436 | 0720-0445  30
 31  0558-0814 | 0627-0733 |                      | 0728-0558 |                      | 0720-0445  31

 

 Rainfall

May 2008 to September 2008

City

May

June

July

August September

Seasonal Totals

Aurora (Central)

2.17 0.83 1.46 5.31 1.73 11.50"
Brighton 1.65 0.67 0.59 4.96 1.38 9.25"
Broomfield 2.01 0.94 0.24 3.35 1.54 8.17"

Castle Rock 4 NE

1.54 0.55 0.83 4.72 0.94 8.58"

Colorado Sprgs Airport

0.34 0.52 0.29 4.31 4.97* 10.43"
Denver DIA 1.56 0.73 0.24 4.03 1.04 7.60"

Denver Downtown

2.40 0.47 0.12 3.54 1.61 8.14"

Golden

1.93 1.30 0.31 3.07 1.30 7.91"

Highlands Ranch

2.48 0.35 0.12 2.36 1.06 6.37"

Lakewood

1.77 0.98 0.51 3.03 1.46 7.95"

Littleton

2.24 0.59 0.39 3.43 1.42 8.07"

Parker

1.65 0.71 0.55 3.86 1.02 7.79"

Sedalia - Hwy 67

2.36 0.35 0.71 4.25 0.98 8.65"

Thornton

1.77 0.39 0.08 4.22 1.49 7.95"

Westminster

2.01 0.94 0.24 3.64 1.97 8.80"

Wheatridge

1.89 0.67 0.47 3.32 1.35 7.70"