The Weather Wire

 

October 2010                                                                                                            Volume 17 Number 10

 

Contents

 

 

 
·   Drought Developing?
 

·   Drought Monitor

 

·   September

    Summary

 

·   September Stats

·   October Preview

 

·   Sunrise/Sunset

 

·   Precipitation Totals

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September

Avg High - 84.8

Avg Low - 49.1

Snow - 0.0"

Season Snow - 0.0"

Precipitation - 0.06"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October

Avg High - 66.0

Avg Low - 35.9

Avg Snow -  4.1"

Avg Precip - 0.99"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Skyview Weather 

2350 N Rocky View Rd

Castle Rock, CO 80108

 

Phone: (303) 688-9175

Fax: (303) 380-3338

 

E-mail:    

tim@skyview-wx.com

 

We’re on the Web!

http://www.skyview-wx.com/

 

Copyright 2010

Skyview Weather

DROUGHT DEVELOPING?

The word drought has not been thrown around for awhile as last year precipitation totals were well above normal for many Front Range communities.  Even this year up until last month precipitation amounts were near normal for the year but with a very dry September precipitation totals are currently below normal.  September of 2010 was the 5th driest September on record with only 0.06” reported at DIA and there were many locations along the Front Range that only reported a trace during the month.  As of the end of September Denver is 1.60” below normal with 10.61” so far this year compared to 12.21” on average which is about 13% below normal.  If one month is dry that is ok, but with a strong La Nina expected through at least the first half of this winter chances are quite high to continue the below normal precipitation trend.  This will likely result in the yearly precipitation deficit to increase to 20% or more below normal by the New Year.  Below is an up close look at the Drought Monitor for the state of Colorado showing percent of normal precipitation observed last month:

Notice how most locations in eastern and especially northeastern Colorado received less than 5% of normal precipitation for the month.  It should be no surprise then that a moderate drought is already developing in these areas as can be seen on the map below:

Abnormally dry conditions persist over much of Colorado except the SW region and extreme SE Colorado.  Moderate drought has already developed over most of the highly populated areas of the state from Colorado Springs through Fort Collins.  Drought conditions may become severe over the winter as below normal snowfall is projected.  In the previous newsletter normal to below normal temperatures were expected this winter but looking at the pattern now above normal temperatures are becoming more likely.  The combination of warmer temperatures and below normal snowfall may lead to a more severe drought and watering restrictions next spring if this pattern is not broken by March or April of next year.            

Images above can be found at:

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?CO,W

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/images/articles/642820642.png

 

 Drought Update

Dry conditions since mid August have brought areas of drought to much of Colorado again.

The map below shows forecasted temperature deviances for October 2010. As can be seen, above normal temperatures are expected statewide for the month.

The map below shows forecasted precipitation deviances for October 2010.  Below normal precipitation is expected across most of Colorado.

Some areas of drought have returned and are likely to persist across north central Colorado.

September Summary

With only 0.06" reported at DIA for the month, September of 2010 will go down as the 5th driest September on record.  Normal precipitation for the month is 1.14" and now puts our yearly precipitation deficit at 1.60" below normal.  Temperatures were also incredibly warm with average highs of 84.8 and lows of 49.1 resulting in a monthly mean temperature of 67.0 which is 4.6 degrees above normal.  67.0 degrees is warm enough to rank 7th all time for the warmest September ever!  This may not come as much of a surprise as there were 4 high temperature records broken or tied and the 96 degrees on the 19th was the warmest it has ever been this late in the season. 

September Stats

TEMPERATURE (IN DEGREES F)

 

 

 

 

 

 

AVERAGE MAX

84.8

NORMAL

77.4

DEPARTURE

7.4

AVERAGE MIN

49.1

NORMAL

47.3

DEPARTURE

1.8

MONTHLY MEAN

67.0

NORMAL

62.4

DEPARTURE

4.6

HIGHEST

96 on the 19th

LOWEST

40 on the 3rd

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS WITH MAX 90 OR ABOVE

8

NORMAL

2.2

DAYS WITH MAX 32 OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0.2

DAYS WITH MIN 32 OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0.8

DAYS WITH MIN ZERO OR BELOW

0

NORMAL

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

TEMPERATURE RECORDS

 

Four record high temperatures were recorded: 96 on the 19th, 94 on the 20th, 90 on the 26th and 92on the 28th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HEATING DEGREE DAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

32

NORMAL

136

DEPARTURE

-104

SEASONAL TOTAL

35

NORMAL

146

DEPARTURE

-111

 

 

 

 

 

 

COOLING DEGREE DAYS

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

100

NORMAL

57

DEPARTURE

43

YEARLY TOTAL

862

NORMAL

696

DEPARTURE

166

 

 

 

 

 

 

PRECIPITATION (IN INCHES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

0.06

NORMAL

1.14

DEPARTURE

-1.08

YEARLY TOTAL

10.61

NORMAL

12.21

DEPARTURE

-1.60

GREATEST IN 24 HOURS

0.03" on the 22nd

DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

3

 

 

 

 

 

SNOWFALL (IN INCHES)

 

 

 

 

 

 

MONTHLY TOTAL

0.0

NORMAL

2.1

DEPARTURE

-2.1

SEASONAL TOTAL

0.0

NORMAL

2.1

DEPARTURE

-2.1

GREATEST IN 24 HOURS

0.0

GREATEST DEPTH

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

WIND (IN MILES PER HOUR)

 

 

 

 

 

 

AVERAGE SPEED

9.3 mph

PEAK WIND GUST

44 mph from the NW

 

 

 

 

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS WEATHER

 

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS

3

NORMAL

4

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HEAVY FOG

2

NORMAL

1

NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HAIL

0

 

 

PERCENT OF SUNSHINE

NA

NORMAL

74%

October Preview

The unseasonably warm dry weather of September is carrying into the first part of October.  Despite the beautiful fall weather currently October will bring the seasons first freeze and more than likely the first snowfall.  The first freeze usually occurs by the 7th of the month but looks like we will be waiting a little longer this year.  The first snow typically occurs by the 15th with 4.1" on average for the entire month.  Temperatures can be quite extreme with a record high of 90 and a record low of -2 which results in an incredible temperatures spread of 92 degrees.  October can be one of the more pleasant months of the year with a high percentage of sunshine and warm days with cool nights.  Most of the locals will tell you there is typically some sort of weather to deal with around Halloween and with a dry start to the month it will likely end up a little unsettled at the end so there should be no surprise if Halloween features some acitve weather this year.  

DENVER'S NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL

(NORMAL PERIOD 1971-2000)

 

 

TEMPERATURE

 

 

 

AVERAGE HIGH

66.0

AVERAGE LOW

35.9

MONTHLY MEAN

51.0

DAYS WITH HIGH 90 OR ABOVE

0

DAYS WITH HIGH 32 OR BELOW

Less than 1

DAYS WITH LOW 32 OR BELOW

9

DAYS WITH LOWS ZERO OR BELOW

0

 

 

PRECIPITATION

 

 

 

MONTHLY MEAN

0.99"

DAYS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

5

AVERAGE SNOWFALL IN INCHES

4.1"

DAYS WITH 1.0 INCH OF SNOW OR MORE

1

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS AVERAGES

 

 

 

HEATING DEGREE DAYS

436

COOLING DEGREE DAYS

0

WIND SPEED (MPH)

7.8mph

WIND DIRECTION

South

DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS

1

DAYS WITH DENSE FOG

1

PERCENT OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE

72%

 

 

EXTREMES

 

 

 

RECORD HIGH

90 on 10/1/1892

RECORD LOW

-2 on 10/29/1917

WARMEST

59.9 in 1950

COLDEST

39.0 in 1969

WETTEST

4.17" in 1969

DRIEST

Trace in 1934

SNOWIEST

31.2" in 1969

LEAST SNOWIEST

0.0" in 2003 and 13 other years
 

Sunrise/Sunset (July - Dec Denver area)

                 JUL            AUG           SEP              OCT            NOV          DEC
______________________________________________________________________________
           sr - ss           sr - ss          sr - ss           sr - ss           sr - ss           sr - ss
 01  0535-0831 | 0558-0813 | 0627-0732 | 0656-0643 | 0728-0558 | 0701-0436  01
 02  0536-0831 | 0559-0812 | 0628-0731 | 0657-0642 | 0729-0556 | 0702-0435  02
 03  0536-0831 | 0600-0811 | 0629-0729 | 0658-0640 | 0731-0555 | 0703-0435  03
 04  0537-0831 | 0601-0810 | 0630-0727 | 0659-0639 | 0732-0554 | 0704-0435  04

 05  0537-0831 | 0602-0809 | 0631-0726 | 0700-0637 | 0733-0553 | 0705-0435  05
 06  0538-0831 | 0603-0808 | 0632-0724 | 0701-0635 | 0734-0552 | 0706-0435  06
 07  0539-0830 | 0604-0807 | 0633-0723 | 0702-0634 | 0635-0451 | 0707-0435  07
 08  0539-0830 | 0605-0806 | 0634-0721 | 0703-0632 | 0636-0450 | 0708-0435  08

 09  0540-0830 | 0606-0804 | 0635-0719 | 0704-0631 | 0637-0449 | 0709-0435  09
 10  0541-0829 | 0607-0803 | 0636-0718 | 0705-0629 | 0639-0448 | 0710-0435  10
 11  0541-0829 | 0608-0802 | 0637-0716 | 0706-0628 | 0640-0447 | 0710-0435  11
 12  0542-0828 | 0609-0801 | 0638-0715 | 0707-0626 | 0641-0446 | 0711-0435  12

 13  0543-0828 | 0610-0759 | 0639-0713 | 0708-0625 | 0642-0445 | 0712-0436  13
 14  0543-0827 | 0611-0758 | 0640-0711 | 0709-0623 | 0643-0445 | 0713-0436  14
 15  0544-0827 | 0612-0757 | 0641-0710 | 0710-0622 | 0644-0444 | 0713-0436  15
 16  0545-0826 | 0612-0755 | 0641-0708 | 0711-0620 | 0645-0443 | 0714-0436  16

 17  0546-0826 | 0613-0754 | 0642-0706 | 0712-0619 | 0646-0442 | 0715-0437  17
 18  0546-0825 | 0614-0753 | 0643-0705 | 0713-0617 | 0648-0442 | 0715-0437  18
 19  0547-0825 | 0615-0751 | 0644-0703 | 0714-0616 | 0649-0441 | 0716-0437  19
 20  0548-0824 | 0616-0750 | 0645-0701 | 0715-0614 | 0650-0440 | 0716-0438  20

 21  0549-0823 | 0617-0749 | 0646-0700 | 0716-0613 | 0651-0440 | 0717-0438  21
 22  0550-0822 | 0618-0747 | 0647-0658 | 0717-0612 | 0652-0439 | 0717-0439  22
 23  0551-0822 | 0619-0746 | 0648-0656 | 0718-0610 | 0653-0439 | 0718-0439  23
 24  0551-0821 | 0620-0744 | 0649-0655 | 0719-0609 | 0654-0438 | 0718-0440  24

 25  0552-0820 | 0621-0743 | 0650-0653 | 0720-0608 | 0655-0438 | 0719-0441  25
 26  0553-0819 | 0622-0741 | 0651-0652 | 0722-0606 | 0656-0437 | 0719-0441  26
 27  0554-0818 | 0623-0740 | 0652-0650 | 0723-0605 | 0657-0437 | 0719-0442  27
 28  0555-0817 | 0624-0738 | 0653-0648 | 0724-0604 | 0658-0437 | 0720-0443  28

 29  0556-0816 | 0625-0737 | 0654-0647 | 0725-0602 | 0659-0436 | 0720-0443  29
 30  0557-0815 | 0626-0735 | 0655-0645 | 0726-0600 | 0700-0436 | 0720-0444  30
 31  0558-0814 | 0627-0734 |                   | 0727-0559 |                    | 0720-0445  31



Precipitation

May 2010 to Sept 2010

City

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Seasonal Totals

Aurora (Central)

1.02 2.32 2.44 1.85 0.04 7.67
Brighton 2.83 4.06 0.71 1.26 0.04 8.90
Broomfield 1.50 1.54 0.83 1.16 0.08 5.11

Castle Rock 4 NE

0.63 1.30 4.67 0.59 0.04 7.23

Colorado Sprgs Airport

0.82 0.34 2.67 2.47 0.09 6.39
Denver DIA 1.52 1.60 3.70 1.05 0.06 7.93

Denver Downtown

2.09 1.81 1.54 0.39 0.08 5.91

Golden

1.61 3.29 1.81 1.26 0.02  7.99

Fort Collins

1.97 1.74 1.30 0.99 0.06  6.06

Highlands Ranch

1.10 2.24 2.13 0.91 TR 6.38

Lakewood

1.42 1.46 1.30 0.35 0.12 4.65

Littleton

1.22 1.89 0.87 0.63 0.08 4.69

Parker

0.79 1.54 2.36 0.75 0.08 5.52

Sedalia - Hwy 67

0.98 2.28 3.03 1.30 0.04 7.63

Thornton

1.91 2.48 1.40 0.98 0.15  6.92

Westminster

1.26 2.17 2.48 1.18 0.08 7.17

Wheatridge

1.50 1.65 1.46 0.67 0.08 5.36